Christine, Taylor, Hada, thanks for the time today. You've stood up a bigger MMM since we last spoke, and the gap you named is a daily, ad level read on Amazon and TikTok Shop specifically.
This page covers how Fospha measures that halo, two health and beauty brands that hit the same wall, and where we sit next to the MMM you've already built. Everything here comes from our call.
Three things worth taking from this
- 1You've got a bigger MMM in place now, but it wasn't built to isolate Amazon and TikTok Shop day to day. "The crux of this call is that we want to get more granular into our reads on MMM, and then TikTok shop is becoming increasingly important for us." Fospha runs on top of your MMM daily, at ad level, on exactly those two channels.
- 2Amazon runs about half your category revenue, and TikTok Shop is getting more of your attention every quarter. Fospha's Halo product puts a number on how spend on one channel shows up as sales on the other, the same link Topicals and Nécessaire had to prove before they scaled GMV Max.
- 3Fospha doesn't replace or compete with the MMM you've built, including the TV spend it covers. It's a daily layer underneath it, calibrated so credit on Amazon and TikTok Shop is never double counted against what your MMM already sees.
Proving the TikTok Shop halo
Amazon runs roughly half your category revenue, and TikTok Shop is becoming a bigger priority every quarter. Your MMM sees the big picture, but it wasn't built to show the daily link between spend on one and sales on the other.
- Fospha connects straight into Amazon Vendor Central by API, pulling aggregated conversions the same way it already pulls from Shopify. No pixel, no dev work.
- The model looks for a rise in TikTok Shop and GMV Max impressions, then checks whether Amazon organic moves with it, using game theory to attribute credit only where that causal link holds.
- Walmart goes live imminently and Target is on course for this year, so the same halo view extends across your other marketplaces as they come online.
- Two years of history get modeled from day one through the API connections to Shopify, GA4, and Amazon, so you're not waiting months for a baseline.
The one pager below walks through exactly how the GMV Max halo shows up in the data, the same model behind the Topicals and Nécessaire numbers further down this page.
The model, explained simply
Fospha is a daily marketing mix model that sits on top of the MMM you've already built. It connects to Shopify, GA4, TikTok Shop, and Amazon Vendor Central by API, then models two years of history from day one, so you get an ad level read on Amazon and TikTok Shop every day instead of a periodic recalibration.
Scope, speed, or science, you shouldn't have to pick
Most measurement tools force a tradeoff. MTA gives you speed and granularity but misses upper funnel and Amazon. Incrementality testing gives you causal proof but only in the moment. Quarterly MMM gives you strategic scope but can't drive a weekly budget decision. Fospha is built to stop making that tradeoff.
| Tool | Good for | Not built for |
|---|---|---|
| MTA e.g. NorthBeam, Triple Whale |
Ad-level creative testing, fast intraday signals | Cross-channel budget decisions, upper funnel, Amazon halo |
| Incrementality e.g. Measured |
Proving true lift for a specific channel or test | Always-on decisions — tests go stale fast, you can't run them every day |
| Quarterly MMM e.g. Recast, agency models |
Long-term strategic planning, offline + online mix | Weekly budget decisions — too slow and too coarse for day-to-day |
| Fospha | Daily MMM + ad-level granularity + halo measurement | Replacing your CRM, creative testing tools, or incrementality tests |
You've got a larger MMM covering the full picture, including your TV investment, and that's the right tool for that job. Fospha sits underneath it as the daily layer, and its share of spend adjustment is built specifically so credit on Amazon and TikTok Shop is never claimed twice against what your MMM already sees.
Brands seeing the same halo
Topicals had cut GMV Max spend because they couldn't prove its downstream impact. Fospha showed it was driving a large halo across Amazon and DTC, close to 7.0 total commerce ROAS against the 2.2 TikTok Ads Manager reported. They scaled GMV Max 460% and saw a 3.7X uplift in Amazon revenue.
Nécessaire sells across DTC and Amazon and couldn't see how TikTok and Meta drove marketplace sales. With Fospha's Halo, TikTok's true ROAS came in twice as high as its DTC-only number, and Meta's was 87% higher, so both cleared target. They scaled ahead of Prime Day and revenue rose 7X versus the prior week, 47% above benchmark.
Next steps
- Hugo confirms this week whether the TikTok funding still applies and follows up directly.
- Hugo sends over some marketing materials for Christine to review.
- Amy re-joins to align on TikTok Shop, then we get a demo on the calendar.
Platform walkthrough
Full walkthrough of the platform, reporting views, and daily workflow.
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